Neal Kimberley is an FX market analyst for Reuters. The opinions expressed are his own --
By Neal Kimberley
"LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - South Africa's rand may be set to weaken against the dollar ZAR= as economic and social challenges conspire to curb investor demand for the currency.
Even with the gold XAU= price buoyant, often seen by traders as rand-positive given South Africa's precious metal output, the dollar/rand is nudging its 100-day moving average line (currently 8.2360).
A daily close above that line could evolve into a test of the base of the pair's daily ichimoku cloud (presently 8.2510) and from there a possible move to the top of the cloud at 8.3580, and then the 8.4970 Aug. 31 high.
Apart from a brief plunge to a three-year low of 8.71 to the dollar in early June, the rand has held within a 8.00-8.56 range since mid-May and last traded on Tuesday around 8.22.
But the sight of around 10,000 striking South African platinum miners marching from one Lonmin LMI.L mine shaft to another on Monday, threatening to kill strike breakers, is unlikely to encourage investor demand for the rand. (Full Story)
The month-long strike has already seen violence with 44 deaths at the Marikana mine in mid-August, and footage of the clashes between strikers and police seen around the world.
An illegal stoppage has also hit South Africa's Gold Fields GFIJ.J, the world's fourth biggest gold miner, with 15,000 workers downing tools on Monday at its KDC West operation, less than a week after a similar strike at KDC East.
Labour problems are at least partly rooted in an intra-trade union turf war which in turn has a political dimension.
The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), a key stakeholder in the governing African National Congress-led (ANC) government, is being challenged by the more militant Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU).
Opponents of South African President Jacob Zuma, such as expelled former leader of the ANC Youth League Julius Malema, have been quick to get involved.
The timing of the unrest is particularly sensitive given that the ANC holds a leadership conference in December.
With all these factors in play, the rand might be hit.
CURRENT ACCOUNT
Tuesday's widening of South Africa's second-quarter current account deficit to its biggest since 2008 is not going to help the rand retain its poise.
In its September quarterly bulletin, which reports on data from the second quarter, the South African Reserve Bank said the deficit hit 6.4 percent of gross domestic product, expanding from a 4.9 percent shortfall in the first quarter of the year.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the deficit to moderate slightly because of robust portfolio inflows.
The central bank also said that South Africa's Q2 growth of 3.2 percent had been largely propelled by a big recovery in the mining sector which may not be sustainable.
Not good news with an unemployment rate, categorised by the International Monetary Fund on Aug. 23 as "stubbornly high", of around 25 percent.
South Africa's Oscar Pistorius may have won the final Paralympic track gold medal on Saturday but the rand currently looks as if it is running out of steam.
(Editing by Nigel Stephenson)
((neal.kimberley@thomsonreuters.com,
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