POLL-S.Africa stocks seen up over 10 pct by end-2012 - RTRS

By Vuyani Ndaba




JOHANNESBURG, March 29 (Reuters) - South Africa's blue-chip index will climb a further 11 percent to end this year at a record high, lifted by improving prospects for the global economy, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The Johannesburg Top-40 index .JTOPI is expected to close out the year at 33,000 points, up 11 percent from Wednesday's close of 29,715.14, according to a poll of 10 traders, analysts and portfolio managers taken over the past week.

After a flat 2011, the index is up over 4 percent so far this year - and hit three-year highs in February - putting it within shooting distance of a record high of 31,393.10. The broader All-Share index .JALSH briefly touched a record high of 34,601.27 this month.

"Industrial shares will benefit out of stronger world economies especially the recovering of the U.S. economy and the low interest rate environment," said Rigardt Maartens, a portfolio manager at PSG Konsult.

Heavyweights in the index such as BHP Billiton BILJ.J and Anglo American AGLJ.J AAL.L could benefit from global demand for commodities, as well as the perception they have lagged behind the broader index.

Both BHP and Anglo are little changed so far this year.

GOLD GLOOM

Though Africa's biggest economy gained from its mainstay gold mining sector and safe-haven gold buying since the 2008 crisis erupted, in 2012 investors will likely be betting against assets such as gold, which would weigh heavily on Johannesburg's gold miners.

"With economies recovering, the need for gold as a volatility and safety hedge decreases," Maartens said.

South African stocks shed just half a percent in 2011, even as other emerging markets heavyweights such as Brazil, Russia, India and China all fell around 20 percent. [nL5E8DN2TZ]

The financials sector, dominated by Standard Bank SBKJ.J, Absa ASAJ.J, FirstRand FSRJ.J and Nedbank NEDJ.J, may underperform the index after a strong start in the first quarter.

"Financials should underperform due to lacklustre capital market performance, rising domestic interest rates in the fourth quarter and persistently high inflation cutting into asset backed credit growth," said Mike Haworth at Applied Capital Insights.

"Real household disposable income growth to slow in 2012 and National Credit Act constrains easy credit provision," he added.

All four banks have posted double-digit percentage gains so far this year, with Nedbank rising nearly 19 percent. But analysts see little room for further advancement for banks, citing heady valuations.
The four are trading at around twice their book value - making them more expensive than major global banks such as HSBC HSBA.L and Goldman Sachs GS.N.


Steven