Tuesday, 31 July 2012

Time for something different from the ECB

FT.COM

"Like a whodunit writer, Mario Draghi is good at building suspense and a “yikes, how will he solve this one?” sensation. In December, when the eurozone last faced meltdown, the European Central Bank president wrongfooted markets by providing unlimited three-year loans to the eurozone financial system: the pundits had expected a revamped government bond-buying programme.




Eight months later, the uplifting effects of the longer-term refinancing operations, which saw the ECB pump more than €1tn into banks, have faded. Once again the ECB’s existing bond-buying instrument is unlikely to be his weapon of choice, at least in its current form, argues Ralph Atkins"

Sunday, 29 July 2012

Breaking News - German banks cut back periphery lending

FT.com

Cross-border lending by German banks to the weaker parts of the eurozone has dropped by nearly a fifth since January and now stands at the lowest level since 2005,

According to new central bank data.





Tuesday, 24 July 2012

Asian Summary 24th July - Are we in another Sovereign Crisis with the downgrades !!

Asian stocks paring earlier losses (MSCI Asia pacific little change after being down 0.4%) as the outlook for China’s manufacturing improved. Copper added 1% after reaching a three-week low. Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg had their Aaa credit rating outlooks lowered to negative by Moody's Investors on the rising uncertainty about Europe's debt crisis. Greek creditors meet today amid scepticism that the country will attain its bailout targets. Dow closing up 0.32% and the S&P up 0.42% after SA futures close.



Monday, 23 July 2012

Worry about the euro; not price stability


FT.com
By assigning to the European Central Bank the task of “defining and implementing the monetary policy of the Community”, the EU Treaty implicitly considers that there should be only one monetary policy for the entire euro area.
Yet, looking at a variety of indicators – from short or long term interest rates on a wide variety of assets to the flow of money and credit to the private sector – it is difficult to conclude that monetary conditions are currently uniform across the union, writes Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.





Millions of South Africans trapped in debt spiral

FIN 24.com

"Cape Town - Of the 19.5 million credit active consumers in South Africa, 12 million have missed at least one debt instalment, according to an industry expert.


Even more concerning, 9 million - or 46.4% - have impaired credit records as a result of missing three or more instalments,


The biggest culprit when consumers fall into the debt trap is their use of debt to service other debt. Former Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni warned as far back as six years ago about the "credit madness", where consumers were offered up to three credit cards from banks and told "they could use the one to pay off the other".

Gardner says about 55% of credit active consumers in South Africa spend more than they earn.

"Consumers typically fall into a debt spiral when they access increasingly more debt merely to make ends meet and pay other existing debt. This is what we call 'borrowing from Peter to pay Paul', and results in the average consumer accumulating up to 11 accounts.

"How consumers react the first time they cannot afford a debt instalment is critical," says Gardner. He shares his top three tips to avoid the debt trap:

1. Spend less than you earn

Any financial planning advice should always start with looking at how you spend your money and whether you have a cash surplus or a cash shortage at the end of the month.

Understanding your spending habits by measuring your spend over a number of months is the first, and most effective, financial habit any consumer should adopt.


• Measure your spend

If you are not measuring, then you are not aware if you are spending less or more than you earn. Understanding whether you are spending on necessities or luxuries is critical for effectively managing your cash flow.
This will also provide an early indicator of bigger problems like excessive life style costs that may need immediate, corrective action.

Seeing your spending patterns in black and white will improve your discipline and prevent impulse purchases by illustrating the consequences of not sticking to your budget.

When you understand that buying those shoes will mean you don't have enough money for the month's groceries, you will be more likely to think twice.


• Set household financial goals

If everyone in your household understands the end goal, they will know why they need to stay disciplined and make sacrifices. Goals provide a sense of financial purpose which will improve discipline and ensure buy-in from all household members.

• Change your consumer norms

Most consumers buy their vehicles on credit and like to buy brand new models that will impress their friends and colleagues.

What they fail to realise is that when you buy a new vehicle, you lose at least 15% of its value on day one, not to mention that you will be paying over 10% for finance costs in the first year alone.

How impressive is a fancy vehicle when you realise you have lost 25% of its value in the first 12 months - and it is still owned by the bank?

"Our interventions are aimed at challenging the current thinking in society, making it more 'cool' to resist your ego and spend less than you earn," says Gardner.


2. Correct your past mistakes

Where you have a negative monthly cash flow, it is usually due to excessive debt instalments. Make sure you address this affordability problem early and effectively.

Accessing more loans to try and cover the shortfall will merely delay the crash and multiply the problem.

If you are struggling to pay your debt instalments, you can contact your credit providers and make payment arrangements, like paying reduced instalments for three to four months.

This will allow you to catch your breath. Trying to hide the problem by making more debt will inevitably lead to a dead end (usually after about 10 accounts) which will require far more drastic action like debt counselling, which can take up to five years to bring you back to financial health.

The sooner you address your negative cash flow, the quicker and easier it will be to correct. Do not ignore letters of demand or default notices, as they will not go away and you will merely accumulate expensive legal and collection fees.

3. Have an emergency savings fund

Emergencies are inevitable. To prevent them from wreaking havoc on your finances, build up a savings fund which you can use to pay for emergencies when they happen.

You should aim to have savings equal to two or three times your monthly salary, but start by saving something every month.

Having an emergency savings fund will save you from having to access expensive unsecured debt when urgent, unexpected payments need to be made.

When debt is accessed out of desperation, we usually don't take the time to understand the costs, risks or consequences, resulting in debt that can easily get out of control. "

Take it slow in these choppy times & wait out the temptation  !!

Asian Stocks Drop With Euro as Treasuries Gain on Growth Concern

July 23 (Bloomberg) --
"Asian stocks fell, while the euro weakened to an 11-year low against the yen and Treasury 10-year yields dropped to a record as a Chinese central bank board member warned of slowing growth and on concern Greece may exit the currency bloc. Commodities declined.


The MSCI Asia Pacific Index tumbled 1.6 percent at 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 2.6 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.6 percent while those on the FTSE 100 Index futures lost 0.8 percent. The euro touched a two-year low against the greenback. The yield on the U.S. 10-year note slumped to 1.4347 percent, while Asian government bonds rallied. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials lost 1.2 percent.

“It’s going to be volatile, it’s going to be difficult,” said Raymond Chan, chief Asia-Pacific investment officer at Allianz Global Investors, which oversees about $300 billion. “We’ve not seen any solutions to make sure that the euro stays intact.” In China, “we don’t expect a strong recovery but we’ve probably seen the worst already,” Chan said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

China’s economic expansion may cool for a seventh straight quarter to 7.4 percent in the three months to September, said Song Guoqing, a member of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee. Greece’s creditors meet this week amid doubts that the country will meet its bailout commitments. German Vice Chancellor Philipp Roesler said he’s “very skeptical” that European leaders will be able to rescue Greece. A July 27 report may show the U.S. economy grew in the second quarter at the slowest pace in a year.

Euro Declines

The euro slipped 0.7 percent to 94.73 yen after touching 94.63, the lowest since November 2000, before a Spanish bill sale tomorrow. It dropped 0.4 percent to $1.2115 after earlier sliding to $1.2106, a level unseen since June 2010, as Spain’s 10-year note yields climbed toward a euro-era record last week.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars retreated for a second day, as global growth concerns reduced demand for riskier assets. South Korea’s five-year government bond yield slumped to a record low and Japan’s 10-year yields tumbled to the lowest since June 2003.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.8 percent on July 20, the most in a week, as China pledged to keep curbs on its property market. Economic growth in the country slowed to 7.6 percent in the three months ended June, the sixth straight deceleration, as Europe’s fiscal crisis sapped exports and a crackdown on property speculation curbed domestic demand.

About eight stocks fell for every one that rose on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Ricoh Co., a producer of office equipment that counts on Europe for 21 percent of revenue, retreated 5.8 percent in Tokyo.



U.S. Earnings

McDonald’s Corp., the world’s largest restaurant chain, releases results today. Earnings at U.S. companies have exceeded analyst estimates at about 73 percent of the 118 S&P 500 companies that reported quarterly results so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While profits are up 0.4 percent for the group, sales rose an average 2.9 percent, the weakest since a drop of 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2009.

The S&P 500 rose last week, posting its first back-to-back gain since June, as results from International Business Machines Corp. to Baker Hughes Inc. beat forecasts and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he’s prepared to add stimulus. U.S. consumer confidence and equity valuations are diverging the most in 17 years as price-earnings ratios fall, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

U.S. gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services the nation produced, rose at a 1.4 percent annual rate after a 1.9 percent gain in the prior quarter, according to the median forecast of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Factory orders softened and new-home sales were little changed, other data may show this week.



Corn, Soybeans

Corn for December delivery in Chicago fell to $7.8750 a bushel, after earlier surging to $8 as a drought scorched crops in the U.S., the world’s top producer and exporter. The previous peak for the most-active contract was $7.9925 on June 27, 2008. Soybeans were 1.3 percent lower after touching an all-time high of $16.9150 a bushel.

Roesler, who is Germany’s economy minister, told broadcaster ARD that Greece was unlikely to be able to meet its obligations under a euro-area bailout program as its troika of international creditors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- hold talks this week in Athens. Should that be the case, the country won’t receive more bailout payments, Roesler said.

The International Monetary Fund will stop paying further rescue aid to Greece, making the country’s insolvency in September more likely, the Der Spiegel magazine reported, citing unidentified European Union officials. Data today may show an index of consumer sentiment in the euro region probably fell to minus 20 in July from minus 19.8 a month earlier, economists predicted in a Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporters on this story: Glenys Sim at gsim4@bloomberg.net ; Susan Li in Hong Kong at sli31@bloomberg.net "



Steven



Steven Morris CA (SA)



Mobie : 083 943 1858

Fax: 086 671 2498

E-Mail: steven@global.co.za

Website: www.stevenmorris.co.za

Friday, 20 July 2012

Asian Stocks Drop With Euro on Global Growth Concern; Oil Falls

July 20 (Bloomberg) --

"Asian stocks and the euro declined amid concern Europe’s debt crisis is dragging on global growth and as China pledged to keep curbs on its property market. Oil dropped from the highest level in nine weeks.


The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6 percent at 12:41 p.m. in Tokyo as Japan’s Topix Index lost 1.5 percent for its 10th drop in 11 days. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.4 percent and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.3 percent. The euro weakened against most of its 16 major peers and oil declined 0.7 percent. Corn rose 0.7 percent as a U.S. drought threatened supplies.

“For the market, the environment will continue to be quite challenging,” Steven Sun, an equity strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Central banks globally are easing monetary policy to lower financial market volatility and avoid downside growth risk.”

China won’t relax property control policies and will instead seek to keep a “firm grip” on the real estate market to prevent a rebound in housing prices, Xinhua News Agency said. At more than half of 760 listed Chinese companies to report results, net income declined from a year earlier, worse than in the first six months of 2009, Societe Generale SA said yesterday.

Earnings at U.S. companies have exceeded analyst estimates at about 71 percent of the 110 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profits are down 0.7 percent for the group.

IBM, GE
U.S. stocks rose for a third day yesterday as earnings at companies from International Business Machines Corp., the biggest computer-services provider, and EBay Inc., the largest Internet marketplace, beat estimates. General Electric Co., the world’s biggest maker of jet engines, power generation equipment and health-care imaging devices, will release its results today.

The euro declined 0.1 percent to $1.2266 per dollar. It was little changed at 96.406 yen and set to complete a fourth weekly drop. The Australian dollar traded 0.3 percent from the highest level in 11 weeks.

The dollar and yen rose against most of their 16 major counterparts as the drop in Asian equities and weaker-than- forecast U.S. data boosted demand for safer assets. U.S. initial jobless claims were higher than estimated, and measures of manufacturing activity and sales of existing homes missed estimates, reports yesterday showed.

Toyota, Toshiba
About seven stocks fell for every four that rose on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which is headed for a third weekly advance in four weeks. Carmaker Toyota Motor Corp., which depends on North America for a quarter of its sales, dropped 1.4 percent. Toshiba added 0.7 percent after chipmaking partner SanDisk Corp. posted profits that topped analysts’ estimates.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.2 percent as China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. advanced after mobile phones overtook desktop computers as the most popular Internet portals in China.

Oil traded at $92.06 a barrel after climbing to $92.66 yesterday, the highest close since May 16, on concern increased tension in the Middle East will threaten crude supplies. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for about 40 percent of global supplies, will curb exports by 0.9 percent to 23.78 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 4, compared with 24 million a month earlier, Oil Movements said yesterday in an e-mailed report. "

To contact the reporters on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net ;




Steven



Steven Morris CA (SA)



Mobie : 083 943 1858

Fax: 086 671 2498

E-Mail: steven@global.co.za

Website: www.stevenmorris.co.za